Fox Interview: Street Fight and Market Outlook

In my recent interview, Fox Business’ David Asman digs into the details of what makes a good stock in the current market environment.

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The Danger Zone Pick: 9/24/12

Life Time fitness CEO predicts 15% growth at best. In my weekly Danger Zone interview, I explain how that expectation, even if it comes true, implies unrealistic member and profit growth. The current stock price (~$46/share), using historical growth rates (12%), implies 20 years of profit growth. The member growth  required to justify that level…

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Don’t Trust This Utility’s Dividend

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Smart investors consider more than just the dividend of a stock. They also consider the principal risk. If the principal risk is greater than the dividend yield then the dividend is of no real value. I see the principal risk of this stock at more than 15% with a fair value closer to $50 – after adjusting for the pension accounting shenanigans.

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Less Than 1% of Managers Deliver Alpha: Here Are Details

“New research on the performance of institutional portfolios shows that after risk adjustment, 24% of funds fall significantly short of their chosen market benchmark and have negative alpha, 75% of funds roughly match the market and have zero alpha, and well under 1% achieve superior results after costs—a number not statistically significantly different from zero.”

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The Danger Zone Pick: 9/17/12

The impact on valuation: instead of a fair value in the mid $50s, I now see it in the low $40s – about 30% lower than where the stock is today. 30% dwarfs the 4% dividend yield.

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The Danger Zone Pick: 9/11/12

Check you the latest Danger Zone interview on a company employing misleading merger accounting.

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September’s Most Dangerous Stocks Report Released to Public Today

September’s Most Dangerous Stocks report is now available to the public. 6 new stocks were added this month.

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September’s Most Attractive Stocks Released to the public today

September’s Most Attractive Stocks list is now available to the public. 13 new stocks were added this month.

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“Earnings Accretion” Is a Mirage: Sell HOLX

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Sometimes when I analyze a stock, I am reminded of the marvels that investment bankers can do for their valuations, especially if the company is a good client. With its recent $3.7 billion acquisition of Gen-Probe, I would bet that Hologic (HOLX) made its investment bankers quite happy. Investors, on the contrary, should sell the stock and not be happy with that deal.

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The Danger Zone Pick: 9/4/12

My Danger Zone pick this week is also my Stock Pick of the Week. Listen to all the details in my weekly interview with MarketWatch’s Chuck Jaffe.

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