Talk about priced for perfection! NVIDIA reported earnings and beat both the top and bottom-line expectations. Yet, its stock fell after earnings. Why?

Because even the best results don’t match the lofty expectations for future profit growth implied by the current stock price. If you’ve not see our reverse DCF case study on NVDA and you care even one iota about ‘expectations investing’, then you are doing yourself a disservice.

During Footnotes Season, we’re update ~3,000 models with the most detailed financial data that companies report all year. We leverage our Robo-Analyst AI to analyze each and every one of the 10-Ks, particularly the footnotes. Then and only then, with a clearer understanding of Core Earnings, we quantify the expectations for future growth baked into the stock price.

Strong cash flows and low expectations? We call that a good company and good stock. Strong cash flows with overly optimistic expectations? Good company, bad stock – we call that NVIDIA.

See how we combine expectations investing and superior fundamental data in all our research published this week.

New Long Idea:

With strong demand expected to persist for the next two decades and a strong development pipeline through 2030, this business has room to grow and return cash to shareholders. Yet, the stock remains undervalued.

New Danger Zone:

The worst is yet to come. The market is staring at an AI future where big tech companies have Industrials-like levels of capex and generate Industrials-like levels of return. No longer is there a straight-faced argument for the AI tech giants to retain their current sky-high valuations, even after the pullback already seen this year.

Footnotes Season Finds:

This week’s Footnotes Season Finds report highlights a healthcare company’s understated reported earnings and its cheap stock valuation, which drove an upgrade to its Stock Rating when we parsed its 2025 10-K.

Earnings Watch Parties:

A company can report solid earnings growth and still generate far less Core Earnings (real profits) than investors see. See our fundamentals-first investing in action. In our latest watch party we covered D, FANG, HD, MELI, EOG, NVDA, CRM, LOW, TD, and INTU.

Live Podcast:

This month’s podcast was jam-packed. First up, Joe McCann, CEO of Slingshot Insights, joined us to talk about how investors can use expert calls to make more informed decisions. Then, Kenneth Blazick, Chief Investment Officer for Horizon Financial joined us to discuss the Core Earnings Leaders index, its origin story, and why he believes superior fundamental research, particularly Core Earnings, works.

Featured Stock:

We featured a stock from our Safest Dividend Yields Model Portfolio. See how strong cash flows provide safer dividends in any market.

Model Portfolio Updates:

We updated our Dividend Growth Stocks Model Portfolio for February 2026.

We also updated our Focus List Stocks: Long Model Portfolio.

Danger Zone Podcast:

David Trainer joined Chuck Jaffe to discuss why two companies might drop out of the AI race before summer.

We hope you had a great week!

See a preview of upcoming research below.

Upcoming Research