Category Archives: Past Performance Tracking

Performance tracking of stock picks and 3rd-party assessments of our research.

Position Update: NVR Inc. (NVR)

Following a 59% gain, driven by strong earnings beats, NVR now receives an Attractive risk/reward rating.  Despite the price increase and rating downgrade, the stock still remains undervalued.

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Closing Long Idea Pick: Orbotech (ORBK)

Due to the increase in its valuation, ORBK has been downgraded from Attractive to Neutral, and we are no longer recommending investors buy the stock.

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Model Portfolio Outperformance Through 3Q17

Our model portfolios offer clients multiple strategies to outperform in good and bad markets. See the performance of these model portfolios through 3Q17.

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Closing Danger Zone Pick: Acadia Healthcare (ACHC)

We still don’t recommend the stock to investors, but it no longer has the unbalanced risk/reward profile it once did.

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Position Update: Lear Corp (LEA)

Despite the downgrade, we are maintaining our Long recommendation largely because LEA remains significantly undervalued and the business’ fundamentals remain strong.

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Position Update: Carter’s, Inc. (CRI)

CRI was downgraded to Neutral by our rating system on 9/28/17. Despite the downgraded risk/reward rating, we are maintaining our Long recommendation due to solid fundamentals and the stock’s low valuation.

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Position Close Update: Tenneco, Inc. (TEN)

Following a downgrade in its risk/reward rating, and a subsequent accounting-related rating suspension, we are closing out our long recommendation on Tenneco, Inc. (TEN) with a modest gain.

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Long Idea Update: Spirit AeroSystems (SPR)

Spirit AeroSystems (SPR) was selected as a Long Idea on 6/26/17. SPR is up 40% since publication, but still earns an Attractive risk/reward rating based on earnings quality and low market-implied expectations for future profits.

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Position Update: Lear Corp (LEA)

Lear Corp was selected as a Long Idea on 7/22/16. The stock still earns a Very Attractive rating and is up 49% since the original report was published. Despite the price increase, LEA remains undervalued.

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Alpha-generating Forensic Accounting Examples

New Constructs’ proprietary forensic accounting research empowers investors to identify alpha-generating investment ideas more efficiently than traditional manual approaches. This report highlights investment ideas based on insights our research technology automatically provides on a firm’s true return on invested capital (ROIC) and economic earnings.

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Position Update: Knoll, Inc. (KNL)

While our original thesis has proven too optimistic in the short run due to the industry slowdown, we believe KNL remains best positioned to benefit from the expected improvement in 2H17 industry trends.

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Position Update: Tenneco Inc. (TEN)

TEN was downgraded to Neutral by our rating system on 8/10/17. Despite the downgrade, we are maintaining our Long recommendation due to expectations for a 2H17 margin recovery and the stock’s low valuation.

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Fatten Your Nest Egg with Sanderson Farms

The stock’s of chicken producers have been on a tear this year. We selected Sanderson Farms (SAFM) and Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) as Long Ideas in mid-2015, but we are honing in our focus on SAFM as the best way to play growing chicken demand.

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Closing Danger Zone Pick: VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC)

While business prospects still hinge upon patent infringement rulings, the significantly lower valuation no longer presents the unbalanced risk/reward it once did.

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Closing Danger Zone Pick: Verifone Systems (PAY)

While fundamental issues remain, such as a bottom-quintile ROIC and a challenging competitive landscape, we are inclined to take profits.

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Closing Danger Zone Pick: Shutterstock (SSTK)

The significant reduction in stock price and embedded market expectations diminishes the downside risk and we are closing the position.

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Closing Danger Zone Pick: Celadon Group (CGI)

The significant reduction in stock price and embedded market expectations diminishes the downside risk and we are closing the position.

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Model Portfolio Outperformance Through 2Q17

Our model portfolios offer clients multiple strategies to outperform in good and bad markets. See the performance of these model portfolios through 2Q17.

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Position Close Update: MDLZ, PRGO, ORCL & VZ

Our Long Idea and Danger Zone research reports are part of an ongoing effort to identify hidden gems in the market and help clients avoid portfolio blowups. In this Position Update report, we are closing out two Long Ideas and two Danger Zone picks previously published on the Research Blog.

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Closing Danger Zone Pick: Zoe’s Kitchen (ZOES) After 43% Gain

We think the downside risk in Zoe’s Kitchen (ZOES) is diminished and are closing this position.

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