Given the recent post earnings drop of 20%+, investors may be thinking now is the time to get shares of this company on the cheap.

We disagree.

Even as the stock has fallen 50%+ year-to-date (YTD), our models show that the company’s competitive position and fundamentals remain poor. And, the cash flow expectations baked into its lower stock price remain unreasonably high.

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This stock could fall further based on:

  • consistent losses,
  • misleading adjusted metrics,
  • negative margins vs. much more profitable competitors,
  • a business model more exposed than peers, and
  • a stock valuation that implies the company will grow GMV over 5x current levels.

Still Not Breakeven

Despite consistently growing revenue, this company fails to generate any real profits.

Over the trailing-twelve months (TTM), the company’s Core Earnings are -$47 million, below the company’s peak Core Earnings of -$43 million in 2024. The company’s net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) margin of -0.4% and invested capital turns of 1.1 drive the company’s -0.4% return on invested capital (ROIC) in the TTM ended 2Q26.

Figure 2: Revenue & Core Earnings: 2023 – TTM ended 2Q26

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings

Misleading “Adjusted” Metrics

If you only read this company’s press releases, you might be surprised to find out the company doesn’t generate any profits. The company’s preferred non-IFRS metric, “adjusted operating income,” consistently presents the business in a much better light than the real economics of the business.

The company’s adjusted operating income has been positive in each of the last two years, as well as the TTM ended 2Q26.

Meanwhile, its economic earnings, the true cash flows of the business, have been negative in each of those periods.

In the TTM ended 2Q26, adjusted operating income was $191 million while GAAP net income and economic earnings were -$140 million and -$512 million, respectively.

Figure 3: Adjusted Operating Income, GAAP Net Income, and Economic Earnings: 2023 – 2Q26

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings

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