At the outset of the fourth quarter of 2012, only a single sector earns an attractive rating. My sector ratings are based on the aggregation of my fund ratings for every ETF and mutual fund in each sector.
October’s newsletter with the 40 Most Dangerous Stocks was released to subscribers today. It will be available for purchase by the public on Monday 10/8.
October's newsletter with the 40 Most Attractive Stocks was released to subscribers today. It will be available for purchase by the public on Monday 10/8.
The guts of an ETF are its holdings. And an ETF’s guts are what drive my ETF ratings. As highlighted in Barron’s, the only truly diligent assessment of an ETF is based on its holdings.
Research on an ETF’s holdings is important because an ETF’s performance is only as good as its holdings. Therefore, if you care about performance, you care about the ETF’s holdings.
Working out makes just about everything in my life better. I have more energy, food tastes better and (at least feel as if) I look better. I even think it makes me smarter.I do not feel good about Life Time Fitness (LTM)’s stock, however. The growth expectations in the stock are much too high. And I do not believe in management’s over confident EPS guidance.
Life Time fitness CEO predicts 15% growth at best.
In my weekly Danger Zone interview, I explain how that expectation, even if it comes true, implies unrealistic member and profit growth.
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Smart investors consider more than just the dividend of a stock. They also consider the principal risk. If the principal risk is greater than the dividend yield then the dividend is of no real value. I see the principal risk of this stock at more than 15% with a fair value closer to $50 – after adjusting for the pension accounting shenanigans.
"New research on the performance of institutional portfolios shows that after risk adjustment, 24% of funds fall significantly short of their chosen market benchmark and have negative alpha, 75% of funds roughly match the market and have zero alpha, and well under 1% achieve superior results after costs—a number not statistically significantly different from zero."
The impact on valuation: instead of a fair value in the mid $50s, I now see it in the low $40s - about 30% lower than where the stock is today. 30% dwarfs the 4% dividend yield.