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Don’t Trust This Utility’s Dividend

Smart investors consider more than just the dividend of a stock. They also consider the principal risk. If the principal risk is greater than the dividend yield then the dividend is of no real value. I see the principal risk of this stock at more than 15% with a fair value closer to $50 – after adjusting for the pension accounting shenanigans.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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“Earnings Accretion” Is a Mirage: Sell HOLX

Sometimes when I analyze a stock, I am reminded of the marvels that investment bankers can do for their valuations, especially if the company is a good client. With its recent $3.7 billion acquisition of Gen-Probe, I would bet that Hologic (HOLX) made its investment bankers quite happy. Investors, on the contrary, should sell the stock and not be happy with that deal.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
New Constructs
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The Importance of Expectations – The Question that Bears Repeating: What’s Priced In?

As detailed in "How To Make Money Picking Stocks", quantifying the future cash flow expectations embedded in stock prices is critical to making an informed investment decision. My mentor, Michael Mauboussin, in his latest piece: " The Importance of Expectations – The Question that Bears Repeating: What’s Priced In?" explains more eloquently than I that the key to successful investing is to systematically distinguish between price and value – two very distinct concepts.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO