Markets have spent weeks balancing record highs against a growing list of risks beneath the surface.

AI-everything continues to power mega cap tech and semiconductor stocks higher, while investors cheer another round of “better-than-feared” earnings results. Meanwhile, rising Treasury yields, stubborn inflation concerns, volatile oil prices, and geopolitical tensions remind us that the macro backdrop remains far less stable than the headlines imply.

This tension continues to define the market. Bulls see optimism and more room to run; bears see valuations that already imply near-perfect outcomes.

Expectations matter more than ever.

No matter the narrative, we cut through the noise and focus where market expectations have become disconnected from fundamentals. Whether markets keep grinding higher or volatility returns, disciplined expectations investing is key to separating real opportunity from hype.

Check out all our research from this past week to see how we apply expectations investing in real-time.

New Long Idea:

As we highlighted in a recent Long Idea report, the decline in the number of refineries and global oil supply constraints are driving strong profit growth for U.S refineries. This week’s Long Idea is no exception.

Disrupting the Wall Street Game:

CEO David Trainer recently joined Karlo Jo Helms, Founder & CEO of JOTO PR Disruptors on the Disruption/Interruption podcast to pull back the curtain on decades of Wall Street manipulation.

Earnings Watch Party Replay:

Reality has a way of asserting itself and crushing hype. Beneath the headlines, expectations are dangerously high in many stocks. In our latest Earnings Watch Party, we separated real opportunity from market narratives. Stocks discussed include NVDA, WMT, HD, ADI, TJX, DE, LOW, ROST, TGT, and more.

Featured Stock:

We featured a stock from our Safest Dividend Yields Model Portfolio. Get the best of both worlds: safety and upside potential.

Model Portfolio Updates:

We updated our Dividend Growth Stocks Model Portfolio.

Testimonial:

We’re especially proud when one of our clients tells us how much they appreciate our superior fundamental research. See this recent testimonial.

Danger Zone Podcast:

David Trainer joined Chuck Jaffe to discuss why we believe the cash flow expectations baked into this stock’s price are still much too high.

We hope you had a great week!

See a preview of upcoming research below.

Upcoming Research