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Danger Zone

November 7, 20171Comments

TrueCar Has Further to Fall

We warned investors in August that TrueCar’s (TRUE) flawed business model would lead to slower growth and further losses in the future.
by Sam McBride
November 6, 20173Comments

A Troubling Trend: Falling Profits in a Growing Market

The disconnect between fundamentals and valuation, coupled with a weak competitive position, and misaligned executive incentives land this firm in the Danger Zone.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
New Constructs
November 2, 20170Comments

Podcast: Why the BlackRock High Equity Income Fund is in the Danger Zone

CEO David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life and to talk about our Danger Zone pick this past week: The BlackRock High Equity Income Fund (BMECX).
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
New Constructs
October 31, 20170Comments

Closing Danger Zone Pick: Acadia Healthcare (ACHC)

We still don’t recommend the stock to investors, but it no longer has the unbalanced risk/reward profile it once did.
by Sam McBride
October 30, 20170Comments

A Potential Landmine in Large Cap Value Funds

This Fund stands out as a one to avoid within the Large Cap Value style, especially for investors lured by the “equity income” label. It ranks near the bottom of 966 Large Cap Value style ETFs and Mutual Funds under coverage.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
New Constructs
October 26, 20170Comments

Podcast: Why The Ultimate Software Group is in the Danger Zone

CEO David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life and to talk about our Danger Zone pick this past week: The Ultimate Software Group (ULTI).
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
October 23, 20170Comments

Market Share Matters Little When Profits Are Disappearing

The risk/reward proposition for investors looks unfavorable due to a combination of industry lagging profitability, alarming expense growth, poorly-aligned executive compensation incentives, and high market-implied expectations for future profits.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
New Constructs
October 12, 20170Comments

Podcast: Why This Real Estate Fund is in the Danger Zone

CEO David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life and to talk about our Danger Zone pick this past week: Neuberger Berman Real Estate Fund (NREAX).
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
October 9, 20170Comments

A Fund to Avoid in the Newly Rated Real Estate Sector

The Real Estate sector is filled with potential pitfalls and a deeper level of diligence reveals that some of these funds are worse than others.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
New Constructs
October 5, 20170Comments

Podcast: Why Dentsply Sirona is in the Danger Zone

CEO David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life and to talk about our Danger Zone pick this past week: Dentsply Sirona (XRAY).
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
October 2, 20170Comments

An Example of Misaligned Incentives Leading to a Bad Outcome

This firm's move to bolster growth via a large acquisition recently resulted in the ouster of top executives. Despite pending new leadership, investors remain at risk given the firm's falling profits, lagging margins and overvalued stock price.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
New Constructs
September 29, 20170Comments

ICYMI: New White Paper on the rigor behind our ROIC, New Long Idea, Barron’s Feature, Model Portfolio Updates & a New Danger Zone Warning

Here's what happened at New Constructs this past week.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
New Constructs
September 28, 20170Comments

Podcast: Why CommVault Systems is in the Danger Zone

CEO David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life and to talk about our Danger Zone pick this past week: CommVault Systems (CVLT).
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
September 25, 20170Comments

Failure to Adapt Dooms This Stock

This firm’s late transition to the cloud based software market has left it with falling profits, lagging margins, and a significantly overvalued stock.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
New Constructs
September 21, 20170Comments

Podcast: Why Investors Using GAAP Earnings Are in the Danger Zone

CEO David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life and to talk about our Danger Zone pick this past week: Investors taking GAAP earnings at face value.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
September 14, 20170Comments

Alpha-generating Forensic Accounting Examples

New Constructs’ proprietary forensic accounting research empowers investors to identify alpha-generating investment ideas more efficiently than traditional manual approaches. This report highlights investment ideas based on insights our research technology automatically provides on a firm’s true return on invested capital (ROIC) and economic earnings.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
September 14, 20170Comments

Podcast: Why Lion’s Gate Entertainment Is in the Danger Zone

CEO David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life and to talk about our Danger Zone pick this past week: Lion's Gate Entertainment (LGF.A)
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
New Constructs
September 1, 20170Comments

ICYMI: Dividend Model Portfolio Updates, Tech Laggard in the Danger Zone, & Long Idea Update

Here's what happened at New Constructs this past week.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
New Constructs
August 31, 20170Comments

Podcast: Why Carbonite Is In The Danger Zone

CEO David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life and to talk about our Danger Zone pick this past week: Carbonite (CARB).
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
New Constructs
August 29, 20170Comments

Firm Founders Have Moved On; Investors Should Also

Once at the forefront of a new industry, this firm’s product is now commoditized. Attempts to buy its way into a very competitive new market look desperate. The disconnect between high expectations embedded in the stock price and the firm’s weak competitive position pose a significant risk to investors.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
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  • – John B. Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS) – 5 reports
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  • – Caterpillar (CAT) – 4 reports
  • – TrueCar (TRUE) – 4 reports
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  • – Thor Industries (THO) – 4 reports
  • – Box, Inc. (BOX) – 4 reports
  • – Pinterest (PINS) – 4 reports
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  • – MasTec Inc. (MTZ) – 4 reports
  • – AMC Entertainment (AMC) – 4 reports
  • – Eventbrite (EB) – 4 reports
  • – Cummins (CMI) – 4 reports
  • – Equinix (EQIX) – 3 reports

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