Welcome to the first research service that identifies which companies are most likely to beat or miss their earnings estimates based on abnormally low or high earnings distortion.
We’re proud to report that our analysis of financial filings is unaffected by COVID-19, which is disrupting the offshore financial data collection operations used by many of our competitors to parse data from filings.
Superior analysis of core earnings, as shown by Harvard Business School (HBS) and MIT Sloan, enables us to identify which firms have the most distortion (i.e. unusual gains/losses) in their reported numbers. Note that Compustat’s Income Before Special Items and IBES’ street earnings are missing $0.45 for every $1 of earnings distortion found by our Robo-Analyst according to HBS and MIT Sloan.
As corporate managers bury key data in footnotes to manipulate earnings, and investors miss them, investment opportunities arise because stocks’ prices tend to be driven by core earnings power.
Only our research gives investors the tools they need to accurately measure core earnings[1].
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Every week during the upcoming earnings season, we will publish an Earnings Distortion Scorecard focused on key companies reporting the following week. We segment these companies into five categories, which make up our Earnings Distortion Scores:
- Strong Beat
- Beat
- In-line
- Miss
- Strong Miss
Earnings Distortion Scores are a short-term predictor of the likelihood of a company to beat/miss expectations in the next quarter. They are based on the amount of over/understatement of GAAP net income caused by unusual gains/losses.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Earnings Season Weekly Reports
Starting the week of April 6, 2020, we’ll break down the important earnings releases for the following week. In this analysis, you’ll get up-to-date information regarding a stock’s expected earnings release date and its Earnings Distortion Score on the likelihood of beating or missing consensus expectations.
This report will be available to Gold and higher members.
Each week, we will focus on the following companies:
Week of 4/6/20: ABT, BAC, BK, BLK, C, CFG, DHR, DOV, ETFC, FAST, GL, GPC, GS, HON, ISRG, JBHT, JNJ, JPM, KEY, KMI, KSU, LVS, MS, OMC, PGR, PNC, PNR, RF, SCHW, SLB, SNA, STT, TEAM, UAL, UNH, USB, WFC
Week of 4/13/20: AAL, ADM, ADS, AEP, AJG, ALK, ALLE, ALXN, AMP, AMTD, AMZN, APD, APH, AVB, AVY, AXP, BA, BEN, BIIB, BKR, BMRN, CB, CDNS, CE, CERN, CINF, CMA, CMG, CMS, COF, COG, CSGP, CSX, CTXS, DFS, DGX, DLR, DPZ, DRE, EBAY, EDU, EMN, ESS, EW, FB, FBHS, FCX, FE, FFIV, FLIR, FTI, FTV, GD, GWW, HAL, HAS, HES, HOG, HSY, IBM, IEX, ILMN, INTC, IPG, IRM, ITW, IVZ, KMB, KO, LKQ, LLY, LMT, LRCX, LUV, LYB, MAS, MCO, MHK, MMC, MSFT, MTB, NDAQ, NEE, NEM, NFLX, NTRS, NUE, NVR, ODFL, ORLY, PBCT, PCAR, PG, PHM, PLD, PM, PYPL, RHI, ROK, ROP, RTN, SGEN, SIRI, SIVB, SLG, SNAP, SUI, SYF, SYK, T, TAL, TDY, TEL, TFC, TMO, TMUS, TROW, TRU, TRV, TSCO, TSLA, TXN, TXT, UHS, UNP, UTX, V, VAR, VRSN, VTR, VZ, WAB, WAT, WEC, WRB, WST, XEL, XLNX, XOM, XRX, XRX, YNDX, ZBH, ZION
Week of 4/20/20: AAPL, ABBV, ABC, ABMD, ADP, AFL, AGR, AIV, AKAM, ALGN, ALNY, AMD, AME, AMGN, AMT, ANET, ANSS, ANTM, AON, AOS, APA, APTV, ARE, ATVI, BAX, BLL, BSX, BXP, CAT, CBOE, CCI, CDW, CF, CHD, CHKP, CHRW, CHTR, CI, CL, CLX, CME, CMI, CNC, COP, CTSH, CVS, CVX, CXO, D, DD, DHI, DISCA, DISH, DOW, DVN, DXCM, ECL, EIX, EL, EOG, EPD, EQIX, EQR, ES, ETN, ETR, EXC, EXPE, EXR, F, FICO, FIS, FISV, FLS, GE, GILD, GLW, GOOGL, GPN, GRMN, HBI, HCA, HIG, HII, HLT, HOLX, HP, HST, HUM, ICE, IDXX, INCY, IP, IPGP, IQV, JCI, JKHY, JNPR, K, KKR, L, LDOS, LH, LHX, LNT, LYV ,MA, MAA, MCD, MDLZ, MELI, MET,M GM, MKL, MKTX, MLM, MMM, MNST, MO, MPC, MRK, MSCI, MSI, MXIM, NBL, NI, NLSN, NOC, NOV, NOW, NRG, NSC, NWL, NXPI, O, OKE, PAYC, PEAK, PEP, PFE, PFG, PH, PKG, PNW, PODD, PPG, PPL, PSA, PSX, PWR, QCOM, RCL, RJF, RMD, ROL, RSG, SBUX, SCCO, SEE, SHW, SO, SPG, SPGI, SPOT, SQ, SSNC, STX, SWK, SWKS, TAP, TFX, TPR, TWLO, TWTR, TYL, UAA, UDR, UNM, UPS, URI, VLO, VMC, VRSK, VRTX, WDC, WELL, WHR, WLTW, WMB, WRK, WY, XRAY, YUM, YUMC, ZBRA
Week of 4/27/20: AES, AGN, AIG, ALB, ALL, ATO, AWK, BAP, BDX, BIO, BKNG, BMY, BR, BWA, CAH, CBRE, CNP, COTY, CTL, DIS, DVA, EA, EFX, EMR, EXPD, FANG, FLT, FMC, FRT, FTNT, GM, HFC, HPQ, HSIC, IAC, IFF, INVH, IT, J, JD, KDP, KHC, KIM, KLAC, LBRDK, LEG, LNC, MAR, MCHP, MCK, MOS, MPC, MRO, MTCH, MTD, MYL, NCLH, NLOK, NWSA, OXY, PEG, PKI, PRGO, PRU, PXD, QRVO, RE, REG, REGN, RNG, SHOP, SRE, STE, SYY, TDG, TSN, TT, VNO, WM, WU, WYNN, XEC, XYL, ZTS
Week of 5/4/20: A, AEE, AMAT, ATUS, BABA, BIDU, CSCO, DUK, M, NTES, NVDA, PGR, RL, TTWO, ZTO
Week of 5/11/20: AAP, ADI, ADSK, AZO, BBY, CPRT, DE, DXC, HD, HPE, HRL, INTU, JWN, KSS, LB, LOW, MDT, NTAP, ROST, SBAC, SNPS, SPLK, TCOM, TGT, TJX, VFC, VIPS, WMT
Week of 5/18/20: COO, COST, CPRI, DG, DLTR, GPS, KEYS, MRVL, PANW, PVH, UBER, ULTA, VEEV, VMW, WDAY
Week of 5/25/20: CPB, CRM, SJM, TIF
Week of 6/1/20: ADBE, AVGO, HRB, LULU, PGR
See past Earnings Distortion Scorecard reports here.
This article originally published on April 6, 2020.
Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske II, and Matt Shuler receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector, style, or theme.
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, and StockTwits for real-time alerts on all our research.
[1] Our core earnings are a superior measure of profits, as demonstrated in In Core Earnings: New Data & Evidence a paper by professors at Harvard Business School (HBS) & MIT Sloan. The paper empirically shows that our data is superior to IBES “Street Earnings”, owned by Blackstone (BX) and Thomson Reuters (TRI), and “Income Before Special Items” from Compustat, owned by S&P Global (SPGI).