Skip to content
New Constructs
  • Get Access
    • Individual Investors
    • Professional Investors
    • Free Resources
  • Solutions
    • Indices
    • Stock Ratings
    • Credit Ratings
    • Sector Ratings
    • ETF & Mutual Fund Ratings
    • Earnings Distortion Scores
    • Model Portfolios
    • Long & Short Idea Research
    • Macro Fundamental Research
    • Portfolio Tracking & Alert Emails
    • Screening Tools
    • API
    • Excel Add-In
    • Company Models
    • Marked-Up SEC Filings
    • Research Blog
    • Fundamental Data Products
      • Core Earnings & Earnings Distortion
      • Reported Fundamentals
      • Proprietary Adjusted Fundamentals
      • Value Screens/Metrics
      • Enhanced Value Screens/Metrics
  • Blog
  • Community
    • Online Community Forum
      • Join our Online Community
    • Live Video Podcast (Free)
    • Let’s Talk Long Ideas (Members Only)
    • YouTube Channel
    • Education
      • Free Training Sessions
      • Value Investing 2.0
      • Metrics Definitions
      • Rating Methodologies
      • Accounting Loopholes
      • FASB Tracker
      • Company Models
  • Company
    • About Us
    • Customer Testimonials
    • Partnerships
    • Papers & Case Studies
      • Proven-Superior Models
      • Proven-Superior Stock Ratings
      • Novel Alpha in our Proprietary Data
    • Robo-Analyst Technology
    • News & Media Coverage
    • Stock Picking Accolades
    • Careers
  • Members

expectations investing

March 13, 20260Comments

Quantifying Expectations and Earnings Watch Party – Monthly Podcast with David Trainer and Kyle Guske II

March 2026's Monthly Podcast replay is now live in our online community.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
March 11, 20260Comments

Live Podcast Friday: Quantifying Expectations and Earnings Watch Party

All are welcome to join us for our next live podcast on Friday, March 13 at 12pm EST.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
February 27, 20250Comments

A Terrible Business With An Incredibly Optimistic Valuation

Do you ever wonder how disconnected a stock’s valuation can possibly get from the fundamentals of the underlying business?
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
February 26, 20250Comments

The Shocking Truth about Spotify’s (SPOT) Valuation

Let me show you how much downside risk is in a stock as hyped up as Spotify.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
February 14, 20250Comments

Mr. Market Thinks Amazon Will Rule The World

When you look under the hood of the stock’s valuation, you see that the market’s expectations for future cash flows are shockingly high.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
February 4, 20250Comments

Comparing the Cash Flow Expectations for IonQ (IONQ) to the Biggest Companies in the S&P 500

Putting context around the future cash flows baked into the current stock price an be very illuminating.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
Danger Zone
December 19, 20240Comments

Expectations Investing: Quantifying Netflix’s Valuation

Let’s show we use our reverse discounted cash flow model to quantify the expectations baked into Netflix.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
October 24, 20240Comments

How to Profit From Expectations Investing

For over two decades, our research has been digging into financial statements, uncovering metrics that most investors overlook.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
September 4, 20240Comments

My Secret Weapon for Calling the Top in NVDA

I am going to show you my secret weapon for calling the top in the most important stock in the market.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
November 22, 20232Comments

Taking Overvaluation to An Artificially High Level

The fundamentals of this business have not improved at anywhere close to the pace of the meteoric stock rise.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
July 31, 20230Comments

Expectations Vs. Reality In Today’s Market – Stock Trading Pro Podcast

We joined Pete Renzulli on the Stock Trading Pro podcast to discuss the outrageous cash flow expectations baked into TSLA and CVNA.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
May 12, 20230Comments

Reverse DCF Case Studies on Nvidia and Apple – Stock Trading Pro Podcast

We joined Pete Renzulli on the Stock Trading Pro podcast to discuss the expectations baked into the stock prices of both NVIDIA (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL).
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
ICYMI
July 29, 20220Comments

ICYMI: New Zombie Stock, Almost a Zombie Stock, Traditional Earnings Metrics Mislead Investors, the Best & Worst ETFs & Mutual Funds in 3Q22, Position Close Update & Model Portfolio Updates

Here's what happened at New Constructs this past week.
by Matt Shuler, Investment Analyst II
April 29, 20220Comments

Fundamentals To Navigate Turbulent Markets: Nasdaq TV

We joined Nasdaq’s Trade Talks to discuss why investors can’t rely solely on robo-advisors and why fundamentals matter, especially in volatile markets.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
February 3, 20220Comments

Robinhood’s False Promises – Yahoo Finance

We joined Yahoo Finance to discuss the end of the Robinhood (HOOD) fairy tale.
by Matt Shuler, Investment Analyst II
November 15, 20210Comments

Sweetgreen: Healthy Product but Unhealthy IPO

We think the stock is likely worth $0 given the intense competition from other new entrants and established restaurants, which are easily replicating Sweetgreen’s menu and concept.
by Matt Shuler, Investment Analyst II
November 11, 20210Comments

The Math Behind Tesla’s Overvalued Stock Price: Bloomberg TV

We joined Bloomberg TV’s QuickTake to discuss the 100%+ EV market share Tesla must achieve to justify its valuation.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
Danger Zone
November 8, 20210Comments

After 3Q21 EPS, This Events Stock Remains Overvalued by 86%+

This business looks increasingly unlikely to achieve the high revenue and profit growth implied by its stock price.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
Danger Zone Podcast
November 8, 20210Comments

Podcast: Why This Event Promoter is in the Danger Zone

Investment Analyst Kyle Guske II sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about our Danger Zone pick this week: After 3Q21 EPS, This Events Stock Remains Overvalued by 86%+.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
November 4, 20210Comments

Barron’s Features our Research on the Expectations Baked Into Tesla’s Valuation

Barron’s featured research from our report, $1 Trillion of Speculation, which quantifies the expectations for future growth in Tesla's valuation.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
« Older Articles

Search

  • Live-traded Indices
  • AI Winners and Losers
  • Free Trainings
  • David Trainer’s E-Letters
  • —
  • Long Ideas
  • Danger Zone (Sell/short ideas)
  • IPO Research
  • Footnotes Season Finds
  • —
  • Stock Picking Awards & Media Features
  • Testimonials
  • General Market Comments
  • —
  • Model Portfolios
  • – Focus List Stocks: Long
  • – Focus List Stocks: Short
  • – Most Attractive Stocks
  • – Most Dangerous Stocks
  • – Best & Worst ETFs & Mutual Funds by Sector
  • – Best & Worst ETFs & Mutual Funds by Style
  • – Exec Comp Aligned With ROIC
  • – Safest Dividend Yields
  • – Dividend Growth Stocks
  • – Model Portfolio Performance
  • —
  • — Training & Education —
  • Join Our Online Community
  • How To Use Our Site
  • Investing 101
  • Backtest Data Details & Case Studies
  • Accounting Rule Changes
  • ROIC Drives Equity Valuation
  • – Enterprise Value Optimization
  • DOL Fiduciary Regulation
  • M&A Analysis
  • Fundamental Macro Trends & Sector Fundamentals
  • —
  • Company Report Index
  • – Tesla (TSLA) – 26 reports
  • – Netflix (NFLX) – 24 reports
  • – General Motors (GM) – 16 reports
  • – Snap (SNAP) – 15 reports
  • – Carvana (CVNA) – 11 reports
  • – Disney (DIS) – 11 reports
  • – Intel Corporation (INTC) – 10 reports
  • – Wayfair (W) – 11 reports
  • – Uber (UBER) – 10 reports
  • – DoorDash (DASH) – 10 reports
  • – Beyond Meat (BYND) – 10 reports
  • – Peloton (PTON) – 10 reports
  • – Spotify (SPOT) – 9 reports
  • – Walmart (WMT) – 9 reports
  • – Skechers USA (SKX) – 9 reports
  • – JPMorgan (JPM) – 9 reports
  • – HCA Healthcare (HCA) – 9 reports
  • – Rivian Automotive (RIVN) – 8 reports
  • – D.R. Horton (DHI) – 8 reports
  • – Target (TGT) – 7 reports
  • – Coinbase (COIN) – 7 reports
  • – Oracle (ORCL) – 7 reports
  • – McDonald’s Corporation (MCD) – 7 reports
  • – Discover Financial (DFS) – 7 reports
  • – AutoZone (AZO) – 7 reports
  • – Shake Shack (SHAK) – 7 reports
  • – Meritage Homes (MTH) – 7 reports
  • – Cisco Systems (CSCO) – 7 reports
  • – Affirm Holdings (AFRM) – 7 reports
  • – Lyft Inc. (LYFT) – 7 reports
  • – Allison Transmission Holdings (ALSN) – 7 reports
  • – NVR Inc. (NVR) – 7 reports
  • – Valeant (VRX) – 6 reports
  • – Cracker Barrel (CBRL) – 6 reports
  • – Best Buy (BBY) – 6 reports
  • – Amazon (AMZN) – 6 reports
  • – Verizon Communications (VZ) – 6 reports
  • – GameStop (GME) – 6 reports
  • – Alphabet (GOOGL) – 6 reports
  • – Colgate-Palmolive (CL) – 6 reports
  • – Southwest Airlines (LUV) – 6 reports
  • – Ford (F) – 6 reports
  • – Amgen (AMGN) – 6 reports
  • – Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – 6 reports
  • – Universal Health Services (UHS) – 6 reports
  • – Kimberly-Clark (KMB) – 6 reports
  • – Allstate (ALL) – 6 reports
  • – John B. Sanfilippo & Son (JBSS) – 5 reports
  • – SYSCO Corporation (SYY) – 5 reports
  • – Zendesk (ZEN) – 5 reports
  • – Lam Research Corp (LRCX) – 5 reports
  • – Lear Corp (LEA) – 5 reports
  • – HF Sinclair (DINO) – 5 reports
  • – Omnicom Group (OMC) – 5 reports
  • – Dropbox (DBX) – 5 reports
  • – Robinhood Markets (HOOD) – 5 reports
  • – Sweetgreen (SG) – 5 reports
  • – Microsoft (MSFT) – 5 reports
  • – Caterpillar (CAT) – 4 reports
  • – TrueCar (TRUE) – 4 reports
  • – Simon Property Group (SPG) – 4 reports
  • – Thor Industries (THO) – 4 reports
  • – Box, Inc. (BOX) – 4 reports
  • – Pinterest (PINS) – 4 reports
  • – Shopify (SHOP) – 4 reports
  • – MasTec Inc. (MTZ) – 4 reports
  • – AMC Entertainment (AMC) – 4 reports
  • – Eventbrite (EB) – 4 reports
  • – Cummins (CMI) – 4 reports
  • – Equinix (EQIX) – 3 reports

About Us Testimonials In the News Support Careers General Legal Documentation
Copyright 2026 New Constructs, LLC All Rights Reserved
Registration on or use of this site constitutes acknowledgement of our Disclosures and Disclaimers and acceptance of our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.