Earnings season is right around the corner and it’s time to protect your portfolio.

Rather than rely on flawed GAAP or Street Earnings, we use FinSights, our AI agent built for us by Google Cloud, to find companies most likely to miss consensus earnings. Like all of our research, FinSights is fueled by the proprietary data from our Robo-Analyst AI, which analyzes the footnotes of financial filings to calculate Core Earnings, a proven superior measure of earnings. 

We’ve crunched the numbers and identified 5 stocks most likely to miss their numbers next quarter. In our latest report, we show:  

  • the frequency and magnitude of overstated GAAP Earnings in the S&P 500,
  • Street Earnings are flawed and misleading,
  • how Core Earnings generate novel alpha, and
  • the five S&P 500 companies most likely to miss Street estimates next quarter.

Below, we provide an excerpt from our latest Earnings Preview report. You can buy the full report a la carte here.

We’re not giving you the tickers from the report, but this excerpt shows how thorough we are.

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GAAP Earnings Overstate Core Earnings for 1/3 of the S&P 500

In the trailing-twelve-months (TTM) as of 3/24/26, 34% of the companies in the S&P 500 reported GAAP Earnings that are higher than Core Earnings. These 170 companies with overstated GAAP Earnings make up 52% of the market cap of the S&P 500 as of March 24, 2026.

The median amount that GAAP Earnings overstate Core Earnings is 6%, per Figure 1.

Figure 1: Median S&P 500 GAAP Earnings Overstated by 6%

Sources:  New Constructs, LLC and company filings.

S&P 500 Companies Most Likely to Miss Calendar 1Q26 Earnings

Figure 3 in the full report shows the S&P 500 companies with an Unattractive or Very Unattractive Stock Rating and Miss or Strong Miss Street Earnings Distortion Score that are likely to miss calendar 1Q26 earnings because their Street EPS estimates are too high.

Figure 3: S&P 500 Companies Likely to Miss Calendar 1Q26 EPS Estimates

Sources: New Constructs, LLC, company filings, and Yahoo Finance    

…there’s much more in the full report. You can buy the report a la carte here.

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