June 14, 20170Comments

The Fed Can’t Wish Inflation Into Existence

Even with inflation running below target, the Fed chose to raise interest rates again. The Fed’s influence is overstated, but it’s still troubling that major policymakers are acting on such an outdated view of the economy.

by Sam McBride

March 15, 20170Comments

Fed Watching Can Be A Costly Distraction

Investors agonizing over the Fed should focus their efforts elsewhere. Instead of guessing where interest rates will go, read some of the thousands of annual 10-K reports that have come out in the past month.

by Sam McBride

December 14, 20160Comments

The Fed Is Chasing Trump’s Tail

As we’ve argued in the past, the Fed is irrelevant. The market has already driven interest rates up in response to Trump’s election and a more positive economic outlook.

by Sam McBride

November 3, 20160Comments

The Low Rate Era: Why The Fed’s Decision Is No Surprise

The Fed needs to acknowledge that it’s no longer in the driver’s seat and stop with the vague hints about “normalizing” monetary policy. Low interest rates are the new normal, and there’s nothing the Fed can do about that fact.

by Sam McBride

October 5, 20161Comments

Ignore Clinton And Trump: The Fed Is A Sideshow

Endlessly debating the actions of the Fed, either by political candidates or financial talking heads, has become a sideshow that distracts from the real workings of the economy and the stock market.

by Sam McBride

September 26, 20162Comments

The Fed Is Irrelevant: Low Interest Rates Are the New Normal

It’s time to consider a new paradigm for interest rates – a paradigm where treasury rates remain ultra low and riskier investments are priced by a decentralized market instead of a central bank.

by Sam McBride

September 22, 20163Comments

How The Internet Economy Killed Inflation

The internet economy may be in the early stages of transforming our daily lives, but it’s already wreaking havoc on economic policy. As mentioned at the top of this piece, the Fed cannot manage to hit its 2% inflation target no matter how hard it tries, so maybe it should stop trying.

by Sam McBride

March 18, 20150Comments

Market Outlook: United States: Best of Breed in 2015

What a year for the market in 2014! It was so good that it seems there is general consensus that 2015 cannot be very good. No longer does the market wonder “if” the Federal Reserve will raise rate.

by David Trainer, Founder & CEO

June 17, 20131Comments

Danger Zone 6/17/13: Citigroup (C)

As the market bulls continue to look to rising interest rates as a sign of future strength for Citi, they ignore the fundamentals of the market and of Citi’s weak profit history.

by David Trainer, Founder & CEO

August 9, 20110Comments

Don’t Fall For the Market Head-fake Today

The market decline experienced thus far is closer to its beginning rather then its end. Today’s refreshing market rise is likely just a flash in the pan. The market needs to go down again before it can sustain any future rise.

by David Trainer, Founder & CEO

November 17, 20101Comments

How Artificially Low Interest Rates Harm Economies in the Long Term

Maintaining artificially low interest rates or excessive money supply does permanent damage to economies in the medium and long-term because it delays creative destruction, the process of replacing low-return investments with higher-return investments. To help illustrate this point, I present the “Investment Opportunity Schedule” in Exhibit 1

by David Trainer, Founder & CEO

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