1Comments

Buy LRCX: More Value Than Meets the Eye

Most of my research and publishing tends to focus on companies manipulating accounting rules to make their reported earnings look better than the real economic cash flows of their business. It is unfortunately rare that I find a company whose economic earnings are outpacing the reported accounting results and whose stock is cheap. One such company is Lam Research (LRCX – very attractive rating). One of September’s most attractive stocks, LRCX offers investors hidden value.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
New Constructs
3Comments

Stock Pick of the Week: Buy Discover Financial Services (DFS)- Very Attractive Rating

HIDDEN GEMS: 1. Our dis­counted cash flow analy­sis shows that DFS’s cur­rent val­u­a­tion (stock price of $21.80) implies that the company’s prof­its will decline by 40% and never grow again. 2. Eco­nomic earn­ings are growing faster that reported accounting earnings. 3. Free cash flow of $2.8bn or 24% of its enterprise value during the last fiscal year.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
New Constructs
0Comments

Stock Pick of the Week: Sell/Short BJ’S Restaurants (BJRI)- Very Dangerous Rating

Red flags: 1. Mis­lead­ing earn­ings: BJRI reported a $3mm increase in GAAP earn­ings while our model shows eco­nomic earn­ings declined by $2mm (a dif­fer­ence of $5mm or nearly 40% of reported net income) during the last fiscal year. 2. Very dan­ger­ous val­u­a­tion: stock price of $34 implies BJRI must grow its NOPAT at over 20% com­pounded annu­ally for 15 years. A 15-year growth appre­ci­a­tion period with a 20%+ com­pound­ing growth rate sets expectations for future cash flow performance quite high. Historical growth rates are much lower. 3. Free cash flow was -$83mm or -11% of the company’s enterprise value last year. 4. Off-balance sheet debt of $265mm: 79% of net assets and 25% of market value. 5. Outstanding stock option liability of $44mm or 5% of current market value.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
New Constructs
0Comments

Stock Pick of the Week: Buy Analog Devices Inc (ADI) – Very Attractive Rating

HIDDEN GEMS: 1. About $15 million in non-operating expenses (after-tax) cause reported earnings to be understated. 2. Our dis­counted cash flow analy­sis shows that ADI’s cur­rent val­u­a­tion (stock price of $37.18) implies that the company’s prof­its will decline by 10% and never grow again. 3. The com­pany grew its eco­nomic earn­ings by $283mm dur­ing its last fis­cal year. 4. Excess cash of $2,462.5mm or nearly 25% of its market cap
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO