The valuation alone is not enough to justify keeping this position open given the large improvement in the firm’s fundamentals led by a new management team.
Our time-weighted methodology failed to properly capture the impact of tickers removed from the Focus List. To correct this oversight, we’re updating the performance methodology of our Focus List Model Portfolios.
This firm is a classic “roll-up” that has been buying up smaller competitors for years to manufacture EPS growth. Its recent and largest acquisition to date is also the most harmful to shareholders.
In our calculation of ROIC, we use a time-weighted average invested capital, to most accurately capture the capital available to a business that can be used to generate NOPAT over the course of a year.
It can be scary to buy a stock that’s just dropped 30%, but if the long-term trend in fundamentals remains intact, an unwarranted drop in valuation can lead to a great buying opportunity.
A decline in fundamentals, along with a weakening competitive position (KNL no longer earns the highest ROIC among competitors) lead us to close this position.