3 Reasons Why Amazon’s “Cash Flow” Is A Trap

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As a follow up to our Danger Zone article on May 20th, 2013, we review the “cash flow” thesis proffered by Jeff Bezos and Amazon (AMZN) bulls.

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Buy The Travelers Co (TRV) – Very Attractive Rating

HIDDEN GEMS:
1. About $29 million in non-operating expenses (after-tax) cause reported earnings to be understated.
2. Our dis¬counted cash flow analy¬sis shows that TRV’s cur¬rent val¬u¬a¬tion (stock price of $55.49) implies that the company’s profits will decline by 30% and never grow again.
3. The company grew its economic earn¬ings by $827mm during its last fiscal year.

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JDS Uniphase Cp (JDSU) — free report for Ask Matt, Dangerous Rating

RED FLAG: Our analy­sis of the Finan­cial Foot­notes reveals: the com­pany has writ­ten off over $60bn in assets over the last twelve years. That is a big num­ber com­pared to the company’s mar­ket cap of roughly $2.2bn and its net assets of about $1.3bn. This results in economic earnings of -$5,346mm compared to Net Income of -$866mm during the last fiscal year. For details on what causes the dif­fer­ence between Eco­nomic Ver­sus Account­ing Prof­its, see Appen­dix 3 on page 10 of our free report on JDSU.

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McDonalds Corp (MCD) – free report for Ask Matt, Very Attractive Rating

HIDDEN GEM: Our detailed val­u­a­tion model shows that MCD grew its “eco­nomic” prof­its more than it account­ing prof­its dur­ing its last fis­cal year. Eco­nomic prof­its rose by $272mm while account­ing prof­its rose by $238mm. For details on what causes the dif­fer­ence between Eco­nomic Ver­sus Account­ing Prof­its, see Appen­dix 3 on page 10 of our free report on MCD.

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Sandridge Energy (SD) – Free Report, for Ask Matt Readers, Highlighting a Major Red Flag in the Footnotes

Here is our free report on Sandridge Energy for Ask Matt readers. Our analysis of the Financial Footnotes reveals a major RED FLAG: the company has written off over $3.4bn in assets in just the last two years.

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Stock Pick of the Week: Buy International Business Machines (IBM)

HIDDEN GEM: Our detailed valuation model shows that IBM grew its “economic” profits more than it accounting profits during its last fiscal year. Economic profits rose by $1.15bn while accounting profits rose by $1.09bn.

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Economic Versus Accounting Earnings

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Accounting data was not designed for equity investors, but for debt investors. “Earnings, earnings per share and earnings growth are misleading measures of corporate performance.”(from page 66 in The Quest For Value by Bennett Stewart, Harper Collins 1991.)

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Stock Pick of the Week: Sell/Short Yahoo (YHOO)

Overall, the Risk/Reward of investing in Yahoo’s stock looks Very Dangerous to me. There is lots of downside risk given the Misleading Earnings and there is little upside reward given the already-rich expectations embedded in the stock price.

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Top Ranking for Stock Picking for New Constructs

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New Constructs stock-picking consistently ranks among the best of the nationally-recognized research firms.

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Stock Pick of the Week: Buy Xilinx (XLNX)

HIDDEN GEM: Our detailed valuation model shows that XLNX grew its “economic” profits by nearly $14mm during its last fiscal year while it reported an $18mm decline in accounting profits.

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New Constructs Receives Patent on Research System

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The United States Patent and Trademark Office awarded us patent #7,752,090, titled: System and Method For Reversing Accounting Distortions and Calculating A True Value of a Business.

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Stock Pick of the week: Buy Myriad Genetics (MYGN)

A newcomer to our Most Attractive Stocks for July, this small cap stock has an excellent risk/reward profile, which earns it our highest Rating: Very Attractive.

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No Double-Dip Recession In Sight, Just Slow(er) Growth

As highlighted in LPL Group excellent “Mid-Year Outlook for 2010″, the economy is moving from ‘recovery’ mode to ‘expansion’ mode, which is very different from moving from ‘recovery’ back to ‘recession’ – a prediction made by many attention-seeking alarmists these days. We are still growing, just not as fast.

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Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) Neutral Risk/Reward Rating for Ask Matt Readers

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Here is a free copy of our report on SCHW for Ask Matt readers. This report provides details behind Matt’s analysis of SCHW in his recent article in USA Today: “Charles Schwab stock: Too close to call.” Click here for our report: Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) Neutral Risk/Reward Rating

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Investing vs Speculating

The difference between Investing and Speculating is much larger than Wall Street would have you believe. In fact, they could not be too more different activities. Speculating is gambling. Investing is intelligent decision-making.

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GAP is Stock Pick of the Week – Hidden Gem

Hidden Gem – GPS: economic earnings are rising faster than reported accounting earnings b/c the company lowered the capital employed to run the business. GAAP earnings do not capture increase capital efficiency of the business.

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Sirius Satellite – A Dangerous Stock

TheStreet.com recently published three articles quoting me on SIRI. Andrea Tse called and, after reviewing our models on SIRI, I told her that the stock was Dangerous because:

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NYSE – Why it’s on the Most Dangerous List

There are two primary reasons a stock gets on our Most Dangerous List:

1. Misleading earnings: reported GAAP earnings are positive and rising while economic earnings are negative and declining
2. Expensive valuation: future cash flow expectations embedded in the current price are unusually high especially compared to historical performance.

Free copy of our report on NYX is in the Free Archive on www.newconstructs.com. Or just click here: NYX Company Valuation Report.

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Scoreboard

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Even if you think my analytical methods are bunk, you will still appreciate the performance of New Constructs stock picking. To see how we’ve done…

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How to Make Money Picking Stocks

The best strategy for making money in stocks is “buy low expectations & sell high expectations.” Sounds easy — but if it was easy, everyone would do it, right?

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