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Danger Zone: Comcast (CMCSA)

The Time Warner deal is a smokescreen for the fact that Comcast faces many problems to which it does not have an answer. The market already understands that CMCSA has overpaid, which is why the stock is down 5% since the acquisition was announced. And the price will drop further as the market catches on to the larger competitive issues that Comcast faces.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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No Progress From Amazon in 2013

Amazon (AMZN: $356/share) filed its annual Form 10-K last week. Our analysts have picked through the financial footnotes and fine print. 2013 results reinforce my bearish thesis from May of 2013 that AMZN’s valuation implies a more unrealistic level of growth and profitability than investors realize.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Don’t Trust the Dead Cat Bounce in Angie’s List

Investors beware: Angie's List may be on the rise but the bounce is nothing more than a dead cat. Quantitative Analytics Analyst, David Trainer, highlights Angie's Lists flawed business model, weak growth projections and the fact that insiders keep selling shares. Analysts might see "value" in the company but research shows that growth is slowing, and such growth as there is, is misleading with Customer feedback disappearing behind advertisers' payments. As new competitors move fast into the market, Analysts warn that Patricia Arquette's portrayal of the NGO's inspiring founder shouldn't blind investors to the harsh realities of Angie's List's poor business performance.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Danger Zone: Ashland (ASH)

Specialty chemicals producer Ashland Inc. (ASH) is in the Danger Zone this week. Those that consider ASH a “value” stock are mistaken. The stock is cheap by traditional metrics such as price to earnings, but a closer look reveals the value to be an illusion.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Apple’s Declining Advantage is Undeniable

Apple cannot have pricing power and market share at the same time. No one can for an extended period of time. The problem with AAPL is that it is priced for the company to achieve market share penetration and growth at high prices. The reality is that the quality of Apple products versus competitors is declining. Prices will have to come down just to maintain market share.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Danger Zone: Electronic Arts (EA)

For a while, EA appeared to have cracked the code in the middle part of this decade. By delivering sports franchises like FIFA and games like The Sims, the company saw profits and returns on invested capital (ROIC), which peaked at 93% in 2004, grow to enviable heights. Unfortunately, that strategy has proven unsustainable as ROIC has plummeted.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Danger Zone: Move, Inc (MOVE)

I don’t see any real upside for MOVE. The company is growing revenue, but extraordinary revenue growth is already baked into its price. Competitors like Zillow are already attracting more traffic, and the threat of entry by a larger company looms over the industry. MOVE is overpriced and falling behind in a competitive industry.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO