In my most recent article, I said that modest growth over the next 15 years makes Intel worth ~$41 share today, and this earnings report strengthens my belief in that fair value estimate.
RED FLAG: Our analysis of the Financial Footnotes reveals: the company has written off over $60bn in assets over the last twelve years. That is a big number compared to the company’s market cap of roughly $2.2bn and its net assets of about $1.3bn. This results in economic earnings of -$5,346mm compared to Net Income of -$866mm during the last fiscal year. For details on what causes the difference between Economic Versus Accounting Profits, see Appendix 3 on page 10 of our free report on JDSU.
RED FLAG: The main driver of the difference between Economic and Accounting earnings is FDX's $11.9bn of off-balance sheet debt, a big number compared to $19.7bn in Net Assets and $25.6bn of market value.
HIDDEN GEM: Our detailed valuation model shows that IBM grew its "economic" profits more than it accounting profits during its last fiscal year. Economic profits rose by $1.15bn while accounting profits rose by $1.09bn.
Accounting data was not designed for equity investors, but for debt investors. "Earnings, earnings per share and earnings growth are misleading measures of corporate performance."(from page 66 in The Quest For Value by Bennett Stewart, Harper Collins 1991.)
Overall, the Risk/Reward of investing in Yahoo's stock looks Very Dangerous to me. There is lots of downside risk given the Misleading Earnings and there is little upside reward given the already-rich expectations embedded in the stock price.
One of the Most Dangerous Stocks for July, Whole Foods has misleading earnings and a sky-high valuation, in our opinion. The same is true for all of our Most Dangerous Stocks.
Hidden Gem - GPS: economic earnings are rising faster than reported accounting earnings b/c the company lowered the capital employed to run the business. GAAP earnings do not capture increase capital efficiency of the business.
TheStreet.com recently published three articles quoting me on SIRI. Andrea Tse called and, after reviewing our models on SIRI, I told her that the stock was Dangerous because:
There are two primary reasons a stock gets on our Most Dangerous List:
1. Misleading earnings: reported GAAP earnings are positive and rising while economic earnings are negative and declining
2. Expensive valuation: future cash flow expectations embedded in the current price are unusually high especially compared to historical performance.
Free copy of our report on NYX is in the Free Archive on www.newconstructs.com. Or just click here: NYX Company Valuation Report.
If you are interested in learning how to uncover the truth about the profitability and valuation of stocks, the first place I would tell you to go is the New
David Trainer, Founder & CEO
