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Danger Zone

ICYMI
September 24, 20210Comments

ICYMI: New Long Idea, Street Earnings Overstated by 60%+, New IPO Reports, Podcast: How Earnings Distortion Generates Novel Alpha & Model Portfolio Updates

Here's what happened at New Constructs this past week.
by Matt Shuler, Investment Analyst II
September 23, 20210Comments

Warby Parker’s Direct Listing Still Overvalued After Updated Revenue Guidance

Even with more transparency into expected growth rates, this direct listing is still overvalued.
by Alex Sword
September 23, 20211Comments

Allbirds Is Already Overvalued at Expected IPO Valuation

We do not think investors should expect to make any money in Allbird’s stock if the rumored $2 billion valuation comes true.
by Matt Shuler, Investment Analyst II
Overstated Earnings
September 20, 20210Comments

S&P 500 Companies That Overstated EPS by 60%+ in 2Q21

See five S&P 500 companies with overstated Street Earnings and a Very Unattractive Stock Rating.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
Danger Zone Podcast
September 20, 20210Comments

Podcast: Overstated Earnings Land These S&P 500 Companies in the Danger Zone

David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about our Danger Zone picks this week: S&P 500 Companies That Overstated EPS by 60%+ in 2Q21.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
September 15, 20210Comments

Position Close Update: SPS Commerce (SPSC)

While the stock remains expensive relative to its fundamentals, its position in the fast-growing ecommerce and retail data solutions markets could provide continued momentum.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
Danger Zone Podcast
September 13, 20210Comments

Podcast: Why This Direct-To-Consumer Firm’s Direct Listing Is in the Danger Zone

David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about our Danger Zone picks this week: See Through This Optical Illusion.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
ICYMI
September 10, 20210Comments

ICYMI: Warby Parker’s Direct Listing, High ROICs But Bad Stocks, Finalist for 2 Wealthies FinTech Awards, Growing Our Global Coverage & Where GameStop & Interest Rates Are Headed

Here's what happened at New Constructs this past week.
by Matt Shuler, Investment Analyst II
September 8, 20210Comments

Warby Parker Direct Listing: See Through This Optical Illusion

While we like Warby Parker’s business model, we find the $3 billion valuation much too high for investors to expect a profit from investing in this listing.
by Alex Sword
SumZero Rankings
September 3, 20210Comments

September 2021 Stock-Picking Accolades: #1 in Consumer Discretionary, #1 in Small Cap, #2 in Long, #2 in Value, & More

We are September's #1 ranked stock picker in the Consumer Discretionary and Small Cap categories on SumZero rankings.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
September 2, 20210Comments

Position Close Update: 8×8 Inc. (EGHT)

We believe this stock no longer presents the same risk/reward, despite still earning an Unattractive rating.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
Danger Zone Podcast
August 30, 20210Comments

Podcast: Why S&P Global’s Operating Earnings Are in the Danger Zone

David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about our Danger Zone picks this week: S&P’s “Operating Earnings” Remain Overstated in 2Q21.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
Danger Zone Podcast
August 23, 20210Comments

Podcast: Two Successful Danger Zone Picks That Greatly Outperformed as Shorts

David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about our Danger Zone picks this week: Didi Global (DIDI), Compass Inc. (COMP) and Tesla (TSLA).
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
ICYMI
August 20, 20210Comments

ICYMI: The NEW Value Factor, Good and Bad Stocks Post 2Q21 Earnings, CNBC: Fundamentals Still Matter, Importance of Sticking to Your Convictions, Position Close Updates, & Model Portfolio Updates

Here's what happened at New Constructs this past week.
by Matt Shuler, Investment Analyst II
August 18, 20210Comments

Position Close Update: Didi Global (DIDI)

Didi still earns our Unattractive rating, but with such strong outperformance in such a short period of time, we’re taking gains and closing this short position.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
August 18, 20210Comments

Position Close Update: Compass Inc. (COMP)

With such strong outperformance in a short period of time, we’re taking gains and closing this short position.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
Danger Zone
August 16, 20210Comments

2Q21 Earnings Reveal Competition is Crushing Hopes of Profitability

Despite beating top line estimates, this business is losing ground to formidable incumbents and looks increasingly unlikely to achieve the profits implied by its stock price.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
Danger Zone
August 16, 20210Comments

After 2Q21 Earnings, This Food Concept Stock Remains Overvalued by 70%+

Despite beating top line estimates, this business lacks differentiation and looks increasingly unlikely to achieve the profits implied by its stock price.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
Danger Zone Podcast
August 16, 20210Comments

Podcast: Why This Food Manufacturer is in the Danger Zone After 2Q21 Earnings

David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about our Danger Zone pick this week: 2Q21 Earnings Reveal Competition is Crushing Hopes of Profitability.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
August 13, 20210Comments

Position Close Update: CoStar Group (CSGP)

It’s difficult to make a case to short the stock given improving fundamentals, rising demand for rental properties, and the expected rebound in commercial real estate.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
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