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Danger Zone: Value Investors

Value investing is a tried and tested approach that has worked wonders for investors in the past. However, in today's world, executing this strategy can be a daunting task, given the complexity of the annual reports that companies file. Even professional investors have a tough time understanding the profitability and valuation of companies due to the lengthy and convoluted filings they receive. With stocks becoming more volatile and earnings estimates less precise, investors could be misled into thinking they're making a wise investment when, in fact, there's another side to the coin they've not seen.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Danger Zone: Dunkin Brands Group (DNKN)

DNKN’s illusory growth in accounting earnings has driven the stock up nearly 40% while the S&P 500 is up only about 20% over the past year. Our diligence reveals that while reported earnings are up, DNKN’s economic earnings are in decline. Future growth expectations are overblown as well because the company’s plans to expand outside of the Northeast pit it against formidable, entrenched competitors.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Danger Zone: Tuesday Morning (TUES)

Any brick and mortar retailer carries some risk in this environment, but investors who really want exposure to this sector should look for higher quality companies than TUES. Other retailers have superior profitability metrics, better branding and e-commerce capabilities, and a cheaper valuation. The only reason to touch TUES is to short it.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Danger Zone: Comcast (CMCSA)

The Time Warner deal is a smokescreen for the fact that Comcast faces many problems to which it does not have an answer. The market already understands that CMCSA has overpaid, which is why the stock is down 5% since the acquisition was announced. And the price will drop further as the market catches on to the larger competitive issues that Comcast faces.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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No Progress From Amazon in 2013

Amazon (AMZN: $356/share) filed its annual Form 10-K last week. Our analysts have picked through the financial footnotes and fine print. 2013 results reinforce my bearish thesis from May of 2013 that AMZN’s valuation implies a more unrealistic level of growth and profitability than investors realize.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Don’t Trust the Dead Cat Bounce in Angie’s List

Investors beware: Angie's List may be on the rise but the bounce is nothing more than a dead cat. Quantitative Analytics Analyst, David Trainer, highlights Angie's Lists flawed business model, weak growth projections and the fact that insiders keep selling shares. Analysts might see "value" in the company but research shows that growth is slowing, and such growth as there is, is misleading with Customer feedback disappearing behind advertisers' payments. As new competitors move fast into the market, Analysts warn that Patricia Arquette's portrayal of the NGO's inspiring founder shouldn't blind investors to the harsh realities of Angie's List's poor business performance.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Danger Zone: Ashland (ASH)

Specialty chemicals producer Ashland Inc. (ASH) is in the Danger Zone this week. Those that consider ASH a “value” stock are mistaken. The stock is cheap by traditional metrics such as price to earnings, but a closer look reveals the value to be an illusion.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
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Apple’s Declining Advantage is Undeniable

Apple cannot have pricing power and market share at the same time. No one can for an extended period of time. The problem with AAPL is that it is priced for the company to achieve market share penetration and growth at high prices. The reality is that the quality of Apple products versus competitors is declining. Prices will have to come down just to maintain market share.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO