Long Idea: Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)


The search for quality stocks only gets harder as companies use a growing array of tricks to deceive investors. Our research has always focused on cutting through the noise. We focus on gathering quantifiable facts to identity good risk/reward opportunities for clients. This week’s Long Idea, Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT: $185/share) has shown consistent profit…

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David Trainer on New Constructs’ Best Stocks of 2015 in USA Today


Detail on the New Constructs research featured in USA Today’s best stock picks of 2015.

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Danger Zone: Value Investors


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“Index” Label Myths


The word “index” in an ETF label does not always mean that investors are getting the specific exposure they seek. Diligence on ETF holdings is necessary despite what the providers might have you believe. Below I dispel the following myths concerning index ETFs.

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S&P Says Ratings Were Never Meant To Be Reliable

S&P admits its ratings were never supposed to be reliable. How’s that for proof you need to do your own diligence?

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How To Avoid the Worst Style ETFs


Picking from the multitude of style ETFs is a daunting task. We are here to make it simpler and smarter.

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Best & Worst ETFs & Mutual Funds: Industrials Sector


The Industrials sector ranks fourth out of the ten sectors as detailed in my Sector Rankings for ETFs and Mutual Funds report. It gets my Neutral rating, which is based on aggregation of ratings of 16 ETFs and 18 mutual funds in the Industrials sector as of January 25th, 2013.

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Don’t Trust This Utility’s Dividend


Smart investors consider more than just the dividend of a stock. They also consider the principal risk. If the principal risk is greater than the dividend yield then the dividend is of no real value. I see the principal risk of this stock at more than 15% with a fair value closer to $50 – after adjusting for the pension accounting shenanigans.

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The Danger Zone Pick: 9/17/12

The impact on valuation: instead of a fair value in the mid $50s, I now see it in the low $40s – about 30% lower than where the stock is today. 30% dwarfs the 4% dividend yield.

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Goldman’s Sell Rating on DAL Follows My Short Call

Yesterday, Goldman Sach’s initiated on Delta Airlines (DAL) with a Sell Rating. This stock call comes two months after my note to clients recommending shorting DAL.

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How To Survive the Euro Crisis

As I wrote in “Don’t Be Fooled: Get Short Now”, the euro is not that different from Enron, WorldCom or the Madoff fund. All of these organizations were able to pretend they were profitable or solvent long after they were insolvent.
Now markets are finally acknowledging the intractability of the Euro debacle.

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Top Stock Picks & Shorts: Moneylife Radio Interview w/ Chuck Jaffe

Listen in on my 15 minute interview describing the rigorous diligence New Constructs applies to every rating on the stocks, ETFs and mutual funds we cover.

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Why is S&P Raising Its Outlook on Delta (DAL)?


After S&P’s recent upgrade to its outlook on Delta Airlines [s: DAL], I cannot help but to wonder how they do their analysis.

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Barron’s Features My Analysis on DAL’s Abnormal Pension Accounting


In his weekly column, The Trader, Vito Racanelli features my in-depth work on the funky accounting Delta Airlines’ (DAL) uses to mask $26 billion on off-balance sheet liabilities. Mr. Racanelli agrees with my assertion that DAL’s stock is under tremendous pressure as soon as investors recognize the looming pension liabilities.  

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“S&P: Delta could be in line for upgrade” – Are they kidding?

I do not think S&P’s analysts are aware of Delta’s staggering $22.3 billion in off-balance sheet liabilities, which include $14.1 billion in underfunded pensions and $8.2 in operating leases.

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Bail Out of DAL Before the Stock Crashes


I recommend investors avoid Delta Airlines (DAL). I think the stock could see significant downward pressure as more investors realize how the company is propping up its earnings with relatively aggressive accounting for its pension and postretirement plan (“pensions”), which are already seriously underfunded.

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