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Microsoft

Danger Zone
September 14, 20200Comments

Danger Zone: Priced to be the Next Facebook

Fiduciaries should consider this stock extremely risky, especially in today’s market. Snap Inc. (SNAP)
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
Danger Zone
December 10, 20190Comments

Big Tech Leads Decline in Core Earnings

Reported earnings have not been this overstated, relative to core earnings, for the Tech sector since the Tech bubble.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
Danger Zone Podcast
December 10, 20190Comments

Podcast: Why The Technology Sector is in the Danger Zone

CEO David Trainer sat down with Chuck Jaffe of Money Life to talk about our Danger Zone pick this week: Big Tech Leads Decline in Core Earnings.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
June 17, 20192Comments

Is Slack’s Expected Valuation Spot On?

Slack has impressive growth numbers and some real competitive advantages, but it also faces significant competition as it expands the breadth of its offerings.
by Sam McBride
June 5, 20190Comments

How Much Should Investors Pay for Slack?

We sort through Slack’s fundamentals, project plausible scenarios for the company’s future, and determine the a fair value using our reverse DCF.
by Sam McBride
October 2, 20180Comments

Pre-IPO Coverage: Upwork (UPWK)

This report aims to help investors sort through Upwork’s financial filings to understand the fundamentals and valuation of this IPO.
by Sam McBride
September 26, 20180Comments

Micro-Bubble Winners Part 2

We think these stocks will see a lot of capital flow to them when the second micro bubble bursts.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
June 20, 20180Comments

Beat Private Equity to the Punch on This Value Opportunity

This week, we’re highlighting another cheap retailer that was recently confirmed as a buyout target. This firm also has a high and sustainable dividend yield and upside potential even without an acquisition.
by Sam McBride
Invested Capital
May 18, 20183Comments

Average Invested Capital: Explanation and Examples

In our calculation of ROIC, we use a time-weighted average invested capital, to most accurately capture the capital available to a business that can be used to generate NOPAT over the course of a year.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
March 5, 20180Comments

This David Stands Little Chance Against Industry Goliaths

As the market matures and competition firmly establishes itself, this firm’s lack of resources and highly negative margins create an uphill battle.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
New Constructs Data
January 26, 20181Comments

AI Has a Big (Data) Problem (3 of 5)

We are awash in an ocean of data that grows bigger by the second. And it’s a complete and utter mess.
by Sam McBride
January 17, 20184Comments

The Market Doesn’t Appreciate This Tech Company’s Growth

Strong profit growth and a cheap valuation earn this stock a spot in January’s Most Attractive Stocks List and make it this week’s Long Idea.
by Sam McBride
December 4, 20170Comments

No Recipe for Success: Low Margins in a Competitive Industry

This stock’s valuation has not adjusted to reflect new competitive pressures or the rapidly deteriorating fundamentals.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
September 14, 20170Comments

Alpha-generating Forensic Accounting Examples

New Constructs’ proprietary forensic accounting research empowers investors to identify alpha-generating investment ideas more efficiently than traditional manual approaches. This report highlights investment ideas based on insights our research technology automatically provides on a firm’s true return on invested capital (ROIC) and economic earnings.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
October 6, 20160Comments

Why Suitors Are Leaving Twitter at the Altar – Danger Zone

Today’s news that Alphabet, Apple, and Disney are unlikely to bid for Twitter should come as no surprise. We think these companies (and many investors) are doing the same work we have done and simply cannot stomach paying anywhere close to Twitter’s current price.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
June 13, 20160Comments

Microsoft Vastly Overpays For LinkedIn

Our models show that, even with the most optimistic forecasts, over $20 billion, or $2.60 per MSFT share, of the $26.2 billion purchase is an overpayment and a direct destruction of value for MSFT shareholders.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
April 11, 20160Comments

Danger Zone: Blackbaud Inc. (BLKB)

Our call on Valeant (VRX) showed how dangerous it is to trust non-GAAP earnings because they cannot be used to cover true cash costs. For these reasons and more, Blackbaud Inc. (BLKB) lands in the Danger Zone this week.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
February 18, 20160Comments

Open Letter to Larry Ellison: How To Boost Oracle’s Value By $65 Billion

Thesis: Management can boost the market value of ORCL in the amounts provided by aligning the firm’s strategy and performance compensation with real cash flows or what we call return on invested capital.
by David Trainer, Founder & CEO
December 14, 20151Comments

Danger Zone: Qlik Technologies (QLIK)

Despite deteriorating margins, lack of competitive advantage, and a sky-high valuation, Qlik Technologies (QLIK: $31/share) is up nearly 33% over the past two years and finds itself in the Danger Zone this week.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
October 12, 20152Comments

Danger Zone: Proofpoint Inc. (PFPT)

As hacks or data breaches seem to occur almost daily, the cyber security sector is receiving significant attention across the globe. When we focus on fundamentals and cut through the “sector theme” noise, we find some weak links in the cyber security industry. This week's Danger Zone is one of those weak links.
by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA
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