Too much of the rhetoric surrounding S&P’s downgrade of US debt misses the largest and most important point made by S&P’s bold move: the U.S. financial situation is very bad and getting worse with no reconciliation in sight.
It is difficult to deny the poor credit quality of an entity that grossly overspends its revenues, has a mountain of debt (most of which matures within the next few years) and has taken no meaningful steps toward remedying the situation?
By quibbling over S&P’s procedures and calculations, the Treasury and White House reveal that they have no solid rationale for disagreeing with the downgrade.
The financial sector is one of four sectors to earn our “dangerous” rating and is the worst-ranked sector in the our 3Q11 Sector Roadmap report according to my methodology at New Constructs.
Here is a free copy of our report on RIMM for readers of Ask Matt.
The valuation of RIMM's stock implies the company's after-tax cash flow (NOPAT) will permanently decline by nearly 75%.
The paramount innovation in the Federal Reserve’s statement yesterday was that it will keep interest rates low until at least the middle of 2013.
Did anyone really expect the Fed to announce it would raise rates anytime in the near future?
The market decline experienced thus far is closer to its beginning rather then its end. Today’s refreshing market rise is likely just a flash in the pan.
The market needs to go down again before it can sustain any future rise.
I recommend investors avoid all energy sector ETFs. There are no ETFs in the energy sector with an attractive-or-better rating from my methodology at New Constructs. None of the ETFs rank better than the S&P500.
Investors should sell all dangerous-rated energy sector ETFs. The five ETFs below are the worst-rated of all energy sector ETFs:
In Barron's 1st Half of 2011 Survey: “Stumbling To the Halfway Mark”, performance of our Most Attractive stocks won the #2 ranking over the prior 3 years.
The valuation of MCD'’s stock implies the company will grow its after-tax cash flow (NOPAT) by less than 10% over its remaining life. I think market expectations are too low, especially when the company’s return on invested capital (ROIC) is so high at 14.5%.
We recommend investors avoid all utility sector ETFs. There are no ETFs in the utility sector with an attractive-or-better rating. None of the ETFs rank better than the S&P500.
Investors should sell the following dangerous-rated utility sector ETFs:
The consumer staples and information technology sectors are tops among the ten major sectors. Both get our “attractive” rating. Our Sector Roadmap report ranks and rates all of the 10 sectors. It also benchmarks all sectors against the S&P 500, which gets our “neutral” rating and the Russell 2000, which gets our “dangerous” rating.
Accounting rules provide the biggest loopholes to asset intensive businesses. And the off-balance sheet operating lease loophole is one of the biggest.
By exploiting this loophole, Starwood is able to omit nearly $1 billion in debt from its balance sheet in 2010, $200 million (20% of the total) was added in 2010.
Here is a free copy of our report on Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. (BRK.A) for Ask Matt readers. This report provides details behind Matt’s analysis of BRK.A in his recent article in USA Today.
Yes, RIMM is losing market share and fast. Yes, RIMM’s Blackberry Playbook tablet is a dud. Yes, the stock has been a stinker recently. And yes, none of what I wrote at the beginning of this article would matter if the stock were not super cheap.
Here is a free copy of our report on KRO for Ask Matt readers. This report provides details behind Matt’s analysis of KRO in his recent article in USA Today.
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The worst is not over for Finisar Corporation (FNSR)’s stock. Despite dropping over 50% since March, the stock remains on our most dangerous stocks list, where it has been since October 2010.