July 20, 20230Comments

Post 2Q23 Earnings, Netflix Still Looks Terribly Overvalued

2Q23 earnings continue to show that Netflix is a low-growth business with deteriorating profitability.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

April 18, 20230Comments

Netflix is Still Expensive After 1Q23 Earnings

After the release of 1Q23 earnings, we continue to find that Netflix (NFLX) remains highly overvalued and should trade much lower.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

April 20, 20220Comments

Netflix Could Fall Another 50%

With the subscriber loss in 1Q22 and guidance for further subscriber deterioration in 2Q22, the weaknesses in Netflix’s business model are undeniable.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

April 20, 20220Comments

Netflix (NFLX) – 24 reports

See all our reports on Netflix.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

January 25, 20220Comments

Netflix Is Still Overvalued by At Least $114 Billion

Even after falling 47% from its 52-week high, we think the stock could have a further 66% downside.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

April 27, 20210Comments

Netflix: A Meme-Stock Original

With its huge subscriber miss in 1Q21 and weak guidance for subscriber growth, the weaknesses in Netflix’s business model are undeniable.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

October 7, 20190Comments

Even Reed Hastings Admits Netflix Is in Trouble

Without positive sentiment to prop it up, NFLX remains highly overvalued and a serious risk to shareholders.

by Sam McBride

August 12, 20193Comments

All The Reasons Why Netflix Is Doomed

We’ve been bearish on Netflix for many years, and it seems as if the market is finally catching on to the issues with the business model that we’ve seen all along

by Sam McBride

July 18, 20190Comments

Netflix’s Original Content Strategy Is Failing

The loss of licensed content, increased competition, and higher prices in the future mean investors should expect more disappointing subscriber numbers going forward.

by Sam McBride

March 7, 20194Comments

Loss of Licensed Content Is an Underrated Crisis for Netflix

As legacy media companies pull content, Netflix could lose much of its value to consumers just as the competition heats up.

by Sam McBride

January 28, 20192Comments

Reality Is Closing in on Netflix

Investors are losing patience with Netflix’s extraordinary cash flow burn. Time is running out for Netflix’s current business model to work.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

October 31, 20180Comments

Netflix’s Momentum Has Run Out

The noise-trader momentum driving the stock is evaporating, the company’s mounting (and increasingly expensive) debt poses a significant near term liquidity risk, and the bull case is full of holes.

by Sam McBride

August 6, 20180Comments

Bursting the Micro-Bubble – Part 1

There is a “micro-bubble” in certain tech stocks, where valuations reflect expectations for future cash flows that would require unrealistically high margins, growth, and market share.

by Sam McBride

October 5, 20170Comments

Netflix’s Price Increase Signals Original Content Isn’t Enough

We believe the price increase signifies that Netflix’s competitive advantage has been wiped away. In order to justify its massive original content budget, it must raise prices if it is to ever meet the expectations implied by its stock price.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

August 11, 20171Comments

Disney Dumps Netflix, And So Should Investors

Investors should capitalize on the opportunity provided by Disney’s streaming service announcement and the market’s overreaction to earnings. Buy into a great company at an attractive valuation (Disney) and sell an overvalued company with holes in its business model (Netflix).

by Sam McBride

June 13, 20172Comments

Netflix’s Costly Business Model Proves Unsustainable

The surfacing of this ugly truth could be a catalyst for more investors to question the viability of Netflix’s business model and to send NFLX shares to a more rational level.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

October 18, 20161Comments

Netflix: Look Past the Headline “Beat”

In the wake of 3Q16, Netflix (NFLX) is up nearly 20%. Is this price reaction justified? Have investors gotten too caught up in the “membership beat” or recently lowered expectations?

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

September 19, 20160Comments

Netflix: Is the Music Slowing Down?

Issues include: unprofitable international expansion, dwindling competitive advantages, and a sky-high stock valuation. For a long time, the market has largely ignored these concerns. When investors finally accept the truth about this company and stock, Netflix (NFLX) could be in for a big sell-off.

by Kyle Guske II, Senior Investment Analyst, MBA

July 19, 20160Comments

Netflix’s Competitive Advantage Keeps Dwindling

2Q16 results reinforce our belief that Netflix no longer has a significant competitive advantage. When it tries to raise prices, as it did for many long-time members this quarter, it loses customers to rivals such as HBO (TWX), Amazon Prime Video (AMZN), and Hulu.

by Sam McBride

April 19, 20161Comments

The Spell Is Broken: Netflix Is More Like A Traditional TV Network

Investors should not be surprised that Netflix lowered guidance for subscriber growth for Q2 after announcing that many long-time users will face price increases starting in May.

by Sam McBride

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